Oscars 2020 [updated]

- Best actress: 
Cynthia Erivo in Harriet 
Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story 
Saoirse Ronan in Little Women 
Charlize Theron in Bombshell 
Renée Zellweger in Judy 

My prediction: Renée Zellweger, because she has been winning other awards. 
My wish: none, because I’ve only seen 1 of these films. 
Winner: Renée Zellweger in Judy 

- Best supporting actress: 
Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell  
Laura Dern in Marriage Story 
Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit 
Florence Pugh in Little Women 
Margot Robbie in Bombshell 

My prediction: Laura Dern, because the performance is highly praised and has got her other awards—I haven’t seen Marriage Story. 
My wish: Florence Pugh, because she has a striking performance in Little Women and makes Amy a worthy rival for Jo. I think most people would find her speech about marriage as an economy proposition very memorable. However, I haven’t seen Marriage Story, so Laura Dern might be excellent in it, Florence Pugh is young and would have other opportunities if she doesn’t win. 
Winner: Laura Dern in Marriage Story 

- Best actor: 
Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory 
Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood 
Adam Driver in Marriage Story 
Joaquin Phoenix in Joker 
Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes 

My prediction: Joaquin Phoenix, because he’s among the best actors of his generation, and as Joker, he’s brilliant in an otherwise overhyped film. 
My wish: anyone except Joaquin Phoenix, because I don’t want to hear another shitty speech from him after the Golden Globes and BAFTAs and who knows what else. His speech at the BAFTAs was full of shit; awards should be given to the best works. People of colour should be given opportunities to enter the film industry, make films, get roles, and tell their stories; they should have the opportunities to compete. When it comes to awards, do these people know what it means when they keep pushing for diversity over quality and talent? It’s insulting to non-white actors and filmmakers—if it keeps going, at some point whenever a non-white person gets an award, others will say that they get it for diversity, for a quota, not because they deserve it.  
In the case of Joaquin Phoenix, I don’t think he really cares—for a long time there was controversy surrounding Joker, the film was accused of racism, sexism, misogyny, ableism, “white male rage”, etc. so he says these things to make himself look better, then comfortably accepts the award and changes nothing. If he feels so bad, why does he not give it to someone who he thinks deserves the award more? Why not give it away? Why not refuse to accept it, or refuse to turn up? 
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix in Joker. Guess what he did in the acceptance speech. 

- Best supporting actor: 
Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood 
Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes 
Al Pacino in The Irishman  
Joe Pesci in The Irishman  
Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood 

My prediction: Brad Pitt, because he has been winning other awards. 
My wish: Joe Pesci, because of his cold, subtle, nuanced performance—in The Irishman, he’s much better than both Al Pacino and Robert De Niro. In fact, I don’t know why Al Pacino’s nominated, even though I love him as an actor.
Winner: Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood 

- Best adapted screenplay: 
The Irishman: Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit: Screenplay by Taika Waititi
Joker: Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Little Women: Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes: Written by Anthony McCarten

My prediction: Greta Gerwig. 
My wish: Greta Gerwig, because her adaptation of Little Women is excellent. See my 2 blog posts about Little Women: comparison to the 1994 film, and defence of the changes to the character of Amy. The metafictional ending is brilliant, and works perfectly well. 
Winner: Jojo Rabbit: Screenplay by Taika Waititi

- Best original screenplay: 
Knives Out: Written by Rian Johnson
Marriage Story: Written by Noah Baumbach
1917: Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood: Written by Quentin Tarantino
Parasite: Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho

My prediction: Parasite or Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. 
My wish: Parasite, because it’s very good, and for the film that it is, it is perfect—all the details serve the plot and/or introduce the geography of the house, and everything fits together. Parasite should also win Best editing, for the pacing and rhythm. 
I don’t understand why 1917 is nominated—as a film, it is fantastic technically, but the story is thin, there’s barely anything to it.
Winner: Parasite: Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho

- Best picture: 
Ford v Ferrari 
The Irishman 
Jojo Rabbit 
Joker 
Little Women 
Marriage Story 
1917 
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
Parasite 

My prediction: 1917 
My wish: 1917, because technically it’s impressive, and breath-taking. 1917 should be seen on the big screen. The illusion of the single take is not a gimmick, but a way of drawing the audience in and letting the audience experience the story in real time. I think 1917 has a thin story, and a few details that I find corny, but as a whole, it’s still very impressive. At the beginning, and now and then throughout the film, I kept counting the possible cuts, but later on, I was fully immersed in the story. Emotionally, I felt more watching it than when watching Dunkirk. 1917 should also win Best cinematography and Best production design. 
On a side note, I prefer a film that has the illusion of a single take than a film that is actually a single take (e.g. Russian Ark). A film such as Russian Ark is more like a technical challenge than a work of art, it also goes against the strengths of cinema and its most interesting tool, namely editing. 
Parasite of course would win Best foreign language film. 
Winner: Parasite! Parasite became the 1st film to win both Best picture and Best international feature (previously known as Best foreign language film), after winning Best original screenplay and Best director! 
1917 won Best cinematography as expected, as well as Best visual effects and Best sound mixing. 

- Best director: 
Martin Scorsese—The Irishman 
Todd Phillips—Joker 
Sam Mendes—1917 
Quentin Tarantino—Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood 
Bong Joon Ho—Parasite 

My prediction: Sam Mendes or Bong Joon Ho. 
My wish: Sam Mendes or Bong Joon Ho. Part of me wants Sam Mendes to win because it’s a behemoth task to direct something like 1917. Part of me thinks it should only win Best picture, for the efforts of the entire crew, and thinks that Bong Joon Ho should win for the idea and execution of Parasite—from the pacing and rhythm and the unexpected change of tone, to the details and the way they all fit together. 
Winner: Bong Joon Ho—Parasite. Which also means that Parasite got the most Oscars this year. 4.