Daniel Day-Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix

Why I put the bet on Joaquin Phoenix and think he's more likely to win:
1/ Because Daniel Day-Lewis has won this many awards:
Alliance of Women Film Journalists Award for Best Actor
AACTA International Award for Best Actor
BAFTA Award for Best Actor in a Leading Role
Black Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor
Boston Online Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Boston Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actor
Broadcast Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Central Ohio Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Chicago Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Denver Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
Detroit Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor for Best Actor
Dorian Awards for Performance of the Year - Actor
Florida Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor
Georgia Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Golden Globe Award for Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
Houston Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
Indiana Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Iowa Film Critics Award for Best Actor
Irish Film Award for Best International Actor
Kansas City Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor
Las Vegas Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actor
New York Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor
New York Film Critics Online for Best Actor
North Texas Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor
Online Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
Phoenix Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
San Diego Film Critics Society Award for Best Actor
Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Southeastern Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
Women Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actor

The latest was tonight, he won a BAFTA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VK1spTfLzxE

2/ Because Daniel has won 2 Oscars, for "My left foot" and "There will be blood", and the 2nd time was just in 2008. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z1E75hTtCA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jxK54LnTZ0
Whereas Joaquin Phoenix hasn't got an Oscar, although he has been nominated 3 times for his performances in "Gladiator", "Walk the line" and now "The master".
A couple of years ago Meryl Streep lost an Oscar to Kate Winslet even though Kate Winslet's not that good in "The reader".

3/ Because Joaquin's character in "The master" is more complex. A sex-obsessed alcoholic veteran who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder. Unstable, aggressive, subservient...

4/ Because so far no actor has won 3 Oscars for a leading role, only 2:
Spencer Tracy
Fredric March
Gary Cooper
Marlon Brando
Dustin Hoffman
Tom Hanks
Jack Nicholson
Daniel Day-Lewis
Sean Penn
Whether or not Daniel wins an Oscar this time, he's still 1 of the greatest actors of all time, significant, immortal. Awarding Daniel means he's no longer in this group of 9 people but up there, higher, greater, like Katharine Hepburn with her 4 Oscars.

Why I still think Daniel Day-Lewis should win:
1/ He's superb and magnificent as Abraham Lincoln, bringing Lincoln back to life. 

2/ The fact that he has received lots of awards shouldn't interfere with Oscar.

3/ Awarding a 3rd Oscar shouldn't be too difficult, because 2 actors has won 3 Oscars:
- Jack Nicholson: 2 leading, 1 supporting.
- Walter Brennan: 3 supporting.
Katharine Hepburn won 4 Oscars for best actress in a leading role.

4/ If Daniel indeed becomes the 1st person to win 3 Oscars for a leading role, he deserves it. It's a recognition of his great talent, his dedication and hard work and concentration and his serious attitude about film and acting. I don't know if he's the best actor of all time- I have seen Marlon Brando in just a few films- but Daniel's certainly the best living actor, in the English-speaking world at least. 

5/ More importantly, Joaquin calls Oscars bullshit. He doesn't reject the nomination, but he calls Oscars bullshit, and later, says he doesn't really mean it and apologises. Why should the academy award him, then? I hope they won't.